Jan 15, 2026
Bitcoin is currently testing a major resistance zone around $97,000 as of mid-January 2026. The price has surged from recent lows near $90,000–$91,000, reaching highs around $97,700–$97,924 in recent sessions before pulling back slightly. This level represents a critical psychological and technical barrier that has capped upside since late 2025, with multiple analysts highlighting it as the next major hurdle in the ongoing uptrend.
Current Technical Picture
Price Action & Range: BTC is trading in a clear upward channel, recently breaking above $95,000 and testing $97,250–$97,600 as the immediate overhead resistance. Daily highs have probed $97,924, but closes remain below key levels like $97,608 (high-confluence zone from pivots, Fib retracements, and psychological $97K).
Key Indicators:
RSI (14) hovering near 70–71 → approaching overbought territory, signaling potential short-term exhaustion or pullback risk.
MACD shows positive histogram (bullish momentum), but Supertrend remains bearish on some timeframes, warning of possible rejection.
Volume supports the move (e.g., $29–$35B daily), with solid buying interest above EMA20 (~$91,900–$92,100).
Support Levels: Immediate support clusters at $94,500–$95,000 (recent swing lows + Fib 0.618), then $91,500–$92,000 (20/50-day EMA zone). A deeper pullback could test $90,000 (strong MTF confluence).
Resistance Cluster: $97,250–$97,600 is the make-or-break area. A decisive close above $97,608 could trigger acceleration toward $102,500–$104,000 (Supertrend resistance + prior highs), with extensions to $108,000–$115,000 on strong volume confirmation.
Breakout Scenario (Bullish): Sustained volume push above $97,600 flips momentum fully bullish. Historical patterns show similar resistance tests leading to 8–18% follow-through moves (e.g., post-$90K breakout in late 2025). Target: $100K–$105K short-term, potentially $115K+ if institutional flows accelerate.
Fakeout Scenario (Bearish): Rejection at $97K (e.g., RSI overbought + Supertrend bear flip) could trigger profit-taking back to $94K–$92K support. Worst case: breakdown below $90K targets $80K–$85K (cycle low zones).
Macro Outlook for 2026
The technical battle at $97K is playing out against a supportive but uncertain macro backdrop:
Fed Rate Cuts: Expectations remain for continued easing in 2026 (multiple cuts projected), improving liquidity and risk appetite. Stable inflation (e.g., recent CPI aligning with forecasts) reduces fears of hikes, favoring BTC as a hedge.
Institutional Inflows: Spot ETFs continue absorbing supply, with forecasts for deeper adoption (e.g., advised wealth, sovereign funds). Analysts like Bernstein, Motley Fool, and Standard Chartered see $150K+ as base case, driven by ETF demand and corporate treasuries.
Broader Tailwinds: Tokenization/RWA growth (tripling in 2025), stablecoin expansion (~$300B+), and regulatory clarity (e.g., potential market structure bills) support long-term upside. However, risks include sticky inflation, geopolitical volatility, or AI/tech rotations pulling capital away.
Analyst Consensus: Wide range for 2026 — $75K–$225K, with many clustering $120K–$170K (e.g., J.P. Morgan ~$170K, Bernstein $150K). Bull cases hinge on rate cuts + inflows; bear cases on tightening or recession.
Whether you’re looking to enhance market liquidity, execute large trades, optimize treasury operations, or explore strategic partnerships, Rootstone is here to help.
